The United Kingdom’s Payments Council made several predictions in its latest report that weren’t favorable for traditional payment instruments such as cash and checks. The council predicted that plastic cards and mobile payments will rise to take their place.
The number of consumer cash payments will decline 33 percent over the next decade from 21 billion in 2012 to some 14 billion in 2022, according to the report. The council’s outlook for check is bleaker. Consumer check transactions are expected to plummet from 477 million in 2012 to 186 million in 2022.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, consumer card use will rise an estimated 75 percent from nearly 10 billion payments in 2012 to around 17 billion in 2022, according to the report. While all card segments will experience growth, the council predicts consumers will favor debit and prepaid cards more than credit cards. Companies launching new mobile-payment and Internet-banking services will help drive consumer use of these types of payments from 356 million in 2012 to an estimated 1.5 billion in 2022.
Adrian Kamellard, chief executive, Payments Council commented on the report:
“Over the coming decade we will see major innovation with the introduction of our Mobile Payments Service in 2014, the Current Account Switch Service next month and of course all the innovations brought to market by individual players within the payments field.”
Time will tell if the council’s predictions come to pass, but it is hard not to foreshadow growth in card payments as well online and mobile payments. Cash, however, has shown its resiliency in the past and it would not be surprising if the cash decline estimate has to be revised in the future.
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