Buy now, pay later and artificial intelligence helped fuel record holiday shopping last year—and both are poised to play an even bigger role this holiday season.
During the 2025 holiday season, consumers used BNPL for $20 billion in online purchases, while traffic from AI tools to U.S. retail sites surged nearly sevenfold year over year. This year, both trends are continuing to gain momentum. Adobe expects BNPL to drive more than $21 billion in holiday spending, up 6.6% from last year, while AI-referred traffic to retail sites is expected to increase 130%.
What’s more, Adobe forecasts that overall U.S. e-commerce sales will reach roughly $275 billion this holiday season, up 6.7% year-over-year. The continued growth of BNPL and AI comes against a backdrop of tighter household budgets, raising a broader question: What does record holiday spending tell us about the financial pressures consumers are navigating?
Shopping for Value
Tighter budgets will likely continue to influence consumer behavior. Shoppers are expected to lean heavily on promotions and discounts to check off their shopping lists, making events like Black Friday and Cyber Monday important opportunities to stretch their dollars.
Consumers are also looking for guidance—not just on where to find deals, but on what to buy. AI is increasingly filling that role. Adobe expects AI traffic to U.S. retail sites to surge around 130% this holiday season compared to last year.
Social media influencers and creators will also continue to shape purchasing decisions, giving consumers additional perspectives on deals and products.
The significance of AI this year, however, is less about its emergence as a new shopping tool and more about its staying power. Last year’s holiday season showed that consumers were willing to use generative AI as part of the shopping journey. Its continued growth suggests that AI-assisted product discovery and comparison may be becoming a more established part of how consumers shop.
Financing the Holiday Season
BNPL appears to be following a similar trajectory. In fact, these services have been a welcome lifeline for many consumers because these installment loans offer an alternative to credit cards at a time when many are struggling to manage debt.
However, the rapid growth of BNPL also raises questions about what consumers are using installment loans to finance. BNPL has expanded beyond traditional discretionary purchases. There are also rising instances of consumers turning to BNPL solutions to pay fundamental bills like rent and utilities.
The K-Shaped Question
In light of these consumer pressures, higher holiday shopping could be further evidence of the increasingly K-shaped U.S. economy.
“The top leg of the K are the people who are doing well and are continuing to see their wealth increase through the markets. Tthey have disposable income and have been only moderately affected by gas and food prices,” said Don Apgar, Director of Merchant Payments at Javelin Strategy & Research. “The bottom leg are folks who are being severely impacted by the costs of food, gas, and housing and whose only option is to cut discretionary spending to make ends meet.”
“The question becomes: Given that we are unlikely to see a holiday spending increase from the bottom leg of the K, will the people in the top leg increase holiday spending enough to produce an overall lift of nearly 7%?” he said. “I would expect an uptick in sales of luxury goods and travel, while sales of electronics and other holiday staples will be heavily promotion-driven.”
