Does Google have what it takes to become the dominant player in agentic AI? Its Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP), unveiled at the National Retail Federation’s annual show, is an ambitious initiative designed to let AI agents manage the entire shopping journey—from discovery through checkout. Still, the effort may face an uphill battle in gaining acceptance from both merchants and consumers.
UCP was developed in collaboration with companies including Shopify, Etsy, Wayfair, and Target. Its first rollout is expected to be a new checkout feature that allows users to buy directly from Google’s AI Mode or Gemini.
“Google has long been number one in search, and now consumers are using AI searches to shop,” said Don Apgar, Director of Merchant Payments at Javelin Strategy & Research. “Companies like OpenAI and Perplexity are rushing to build standards that they hope will help them protect their corner of the market in agentic commerce. For example, if the Google standard takes hold, OpenAI may lose relevance in search when it comes to shopping.”
Who Does It Work For?
The broader offering also includes a chatbot, Business Agent, which allows shoppers to interact directly with brands. Still in testing is a service called Direct Offers, which would enable retailers to surface promotions and discounts to AI agents. Together, these services raise a fundamental question: who is the shopping bot ultimately working for—the consumer or Google?
“If you follow what happened in search, first we got search results, then we got sponsored results at the top of the page, now we have AI results at the top of the page,” said Apgar. “When the Google shopping agent makes a purchase, is the bot getting the best deal for the consumer or making the choice that makes the most money for Google?”
The Problems for Merchants
That’s not the only concern. Retailers may face increased exposure to fraud, higher return rates if AI agents—not consumers—are making the purchasing decisions, and potential dilution of brand equity. As a result, merchants could end up charging a premium to agentic shoppers, much as consumers today pay higher prices for food delivered via DoorDash.
“The fact that Google assumes that merchants are clamoring so much to support agentic commerce that they will offer a discount is unrealistic at this stage,” said Apgar. “Merchants today use bot-blocking software to keep competitors from scraping price info and clogging up their servers with unwanted traffic that slows response times for real customers. Now merchant have to figure out which bots to allow and when.”
