The 2025 holiday season is shaping up to be the biggest yet for mobile shopping.
Adobe for Business forecasts that mobile revenue will reach a record 56.1% share of total holiday sales, making the first time mobile accounts for more than half of overall spending. An estimated $142.7 billion will be spent via mobile this holiday season—a 8.5% increase from last year—with seven in 10 online retail visits occurring on mobile devices.
This surge also points to a strong season for buy now, pay later (BNPL) options. Adobe projects $1 billion in BNPL transactions on Cyber Monday alone, making it the first day to reach that milestone.
What’s Driving the Growth
That growth is fueled in part by the increasing availability of BNPL options at checkout. Separate data from Javelin Strategy & Research also shows that BNPL usage is strongest in online channels, particularly on mobile.
Other factors are also contributing to BNPL’s continued growth, according to Ben Danner, Senior Analyst, Credit and Commercial at Javelin. “I think it’s a mixture of factors,” he said. “The economic situation leads people to seek out no to low interest rate financing on BNPL transactions, as well as the flexibility to extend transactions to lower the immediate burden. There’s also the ubiquity of the method—practically all the large retailers accept it now, as well as a growing number of small businesses.”
A Banner Year for BNPL
Overall, the holiday season is projected to generate roughly $20 billion in BNPL spending, up about 10% from the 2024 holiday season. While Cyber Monday is expected to be the biggest day for BNPL purchases, Black Friday is also forecast to see around $750 million in such transactions.
Earlier this year, according to Adobe, roughly four-fifths of BNPL revenue came through mobile devices. Based on that ratio, an estimated $16 billion in BNPL spending could be made via mobile during the holiday season.
Online retail through other channels is expected to see more moderate growth this season. Even so, Adobe forecasts a record $253.4 billion in total online spending this holiday season, which would be the first time that figure has surpassed a quarter of a trillion dollars.
