Javelin’s 2026 Credit Card Trends report anticipated moderate growth in 2026, and we are pleased to see the credit reporting agency TransUnion share a similar expectation. Their numbers use a different source than the Federal Reserve numbers we use, as they rely on consumer files rather than bank filings. Either way, it is time for a breather in growth.
Pressures on household budgets and inflation are natural growth drivers. When budgets tighten, consumers tend to spend more and shift their purchases from debit to credit. Sure, rewards help drive the move, but when money is tight, consumers have few options.
Peak Growth Was In 2022
According to TransUnion’s numbers, 2020, the COVID year, saw balances actually drop 12.5%, a far cry from the usual MBO metric credit card executives often manage to, which is around 7% to 8%. The number rebounded in 2022, with an 18.5% result in credit card loan books. The number has tempered since then, with 12.6% growth in 2023, 5.7% in 2024, and 4.4% in 2025. The expectation is that 2026 credit card loan growth will be a mere 2.3%.
Why Is Growth Tempering?
Easy enough: Lenders are getting more cautious.
60-day delinquency is starting to bubble. Auto loan 60-day delinquency surged from a low of 0.92% in 2021 to 1.54% in 2025. Late mortgages rose from an uncharacteristic low of 0.82% in 2025 to nearly double, at 1.54%. Credit cards, at the decisive 90-day delinquent metric, more than doubled, going from a 2020 low of 1.30% to 2.56% in 2025.
What This Means
Lenders will be more cautious. Products for top-end borrowers, which Amex addresses with its Platinum card and Chase with its Sapphire, are a strong segment, but the mass market will tighten.
For borrowers, expect tighter lending, more application declinations, and stronger collection policies. Stricter lending policies are appropriate to help consumers regain control of their budgets as unemployment rises and the Fed continues to lower interest rates.
We think the Secured Card will help borrowers at the cusp of good credit score levels, particularly <700 FICO Scores. They will even help borrowers with mid-range scores between 700 and 720 who want to improve their performance.
You can read about it here in a recent Javelin report: Evolutions in Secured Cards: Not Ready for Traditional Lenders | Javelin.
