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Data for today’s episode is provided by Mercator Advisory Group’s Viewpoint: 2021 Outlook: U.S. Payments
Positive & Negative 2020 Events Shaping Credit in 2021:
- The Department of Commerce noted a spike in e-commerce growth, bringing e-commerce to 14% of total retail sales in 2020.
- Consumer interest in payment acceptance tech took a big step forward, with over 30% growth in wallets and contactless.
- Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) lending was popularized in 2020 and is anticipated to deliver $39 billion in 2021 spending.
- Given the loan and delinquency forgiveness, credit quality barometers lack up-to-date accuracy on consumers’ credit health.
- An increase in credit card interest could disrupt household budgeting.
- Uneven credit performance by top credit card banks versus smaller issuers continues to impact net operating income.
The judgment to make about the pressure exerted by the COVID-19 virus on the U.S. payments business hinges not only on which changes are important, but which changes are permanent, or portend permanent developments beyond their implementation. The virus affected much, but from the standpoint of payments professionals it acted as an accelerant to processes and trends that were already in place.
Each year, Mercator Advisory Group discusses top trends anticipated for the coming year or two in an Outlook by each of the practices except for Primary Data. The present document summarizes those Outlooks in the context of the larger themes we are studying in 2021.